India’s largest paint company is expected to report a revenue of ₹35,550 crore for 2025-26, according to Elara Capital. The first-quarter revenue is expected to decline 2.6% year-on-year to ₹8,735.2 crore.

Investors would want to see if this forecast holds or improves, as revenue performance will reflect the company’s ability to hold its market position during the tough times. Profitability is likely to remain under pressure. It is expected to see a 7.4% drop in Ebitda and over 10% fall in net profit in Q1FY26. Ebitda is short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

Asian Paints chief executive Amit Syngle, after the results of the last quarter of 2024-25, remained cautiously optimistic about demand and aimed for single-digit value growth in 2025-26.

He said in 2025-26, the company was betting on increased government spending, which picked up after the general elections, on infrastructure projects like tunnels, airports, and bridges, which will provide a strong momentum to their business-to-business channel. The mid-to-luxury housing market is picking up, and more people are buying second homes, which would aid the demand for premium and luxury products.

Increasing competition

Asian Paints, a household name that has enjoyed a dominant market share in decorative and industrial paints for almost two decades, enters the new fiscal year 2025-26, navigating multiple headwinds, including margin pressure, weak demand on the urban side, and intense pricing competition.

Aditya Birla-backed Birla Opus has kept its promise to “disrupt” the market since its entry in April 2024. It has quickly gone from being just an upstart company to a credible competitor. Its aggressive pricing, focus on modern aesthetics, and pitch to GenZ consumers have unsettled incumbents and Asian Paints, despite its legacy moat, has not been immune.

In addition, JSW Paints’ June acquisition of Dutch paintmaker Akzo Nobel’s India business has only increased its competition.

Slow market

Compounding this, 2024-25 was the worst year in two decades for the paint industry, especially the decorative segment, which saw negative growth.

Asian Paints’ profitability took a sharp knock in 2024-25, with its Ebitda margin falling 20% on-year to ₹6,578.82 crore. The decline was even steeper at the bottom line, as net profit dropped 33% to ₹3,709.71 crore.

Its stock declined almost 19% since the beginning of 2024-25, while the benchmark index Sensex rose nearly 10% during the year.

Mint breaks down three major areas of focus ahead of Asian Paints’ earnings announcement scheduled for 29 July.

Demand: Investors and analysts will be watching closely the demand for paints. Even though April was stronger, the early arrival of the monsoon affected painting activity, especially in May and June. The overall quarter saw only mid- to high-single-digit growth in volumes. This reflects that while customers are still buying paint, they may be purchasing less or cheaper products.

Competition Commission of India: While new entrants are challenging Asian Paints, investors may want more details on the ongoing antitrust case filed by Birla Opus against Asian Paints.

Asian Paints had asked the court to cancel the investigation by India’s competition watchdog. It said the CCI made serious accusations about its chief executive in a report, but then removed those accusations without any explanation, creating confusion and hurting its reputation.

After a preliminary probe, the watchdog found that Asian Paints was imposing unfair conditions upon its dealers by restraining them from selling competitive products like those from Birla Opus.

In 2020, Sajjan Jindal’s JSW Paints filed a similar complaint against Asian Paints for alleged abuse of market dominance. They argued that the market leader downgraded the credit limit and tier of several of its dealers after they started working with JSW Paints. The CCI did not find any evidence of wrongdoing after a probe into Asian Paints.

Outlook: Asian Paints’ true test lies in its ability to balance top-line growth with consistent margin delivery as it navigates through an already crowded market where rivals are hungry for market share and ready to burn cash. A recovery in demand will also aid the company in supporting its bottom line in the upcoming quarters.