Trump’s Tariff Gamble Faces New Triad Test: Can India, China, Russia Make The Dust Settle?

If there is any most discussed diplomatic overture in current times, it’s US President Donald Trump’s sudden anti-India stance, with his officials repeatedly issuing remarks disparaging New Delhi. Trump has given so much free rein to his officials that his trade advisor claims ‘Modi is in bed with Xi, Putin’. Amid America’s anti-India remarks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to China to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit held in Tianjin — marking his first visit to the country in seven years. On the sidelines of the summit, he held several high-level bilateral meetings, including with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The meeting of the three leaders is being seen as a significant geopolitical moment, potentially contributing to the formation of a strategic bloc aimed at balancing Western influence — particularly in the context of U.S. trade policies under former President Donald Trump. The alignment of Russia, India, and China (RIC) on economic and diplomatic issues to mitigate the impact of tariffs has been a point of discussion for some time now.

US Additional Tariffs On India

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At the beginning of August 2025, Trump announced an additional 25 percent tariff on imports from India and cited New Delhi’s oil trade with Russia as a key reason.

The order had stated that India is directly or indirectly importing oil from Russia, which America considers a threat to its foreign policy and national security.

However, India did not bow down to Trump’s bullying and refused to accept America’s unfair trade deal demands. The Ministry of External Affairs made it clear that India’s Russian oil imports are based on market factors and done with the overall objective of ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion people of India.

“We reiterate that these actions are unfair, unjustified and unreasonable,” it added. Since then it has been tense between the two nations while India has been making diplomatic strides by meeting dignitaries in both Russia and China.

Also Read: Trump Calls India-US Trade ‘One-Sided Disaster’ Following PM Modi’s Meeting With Putin In China

While US President Trump has repeatedly criticized India’s Russian oil purchase, he has conveniently skipped China, which is reportedly the largest buyer of Moscow’s oil, or Turkey, a key Russian ally.

US Reaffirms Ties With India

Hours after Modi’s bonhomie with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin went viral on social media, the US Embassy in India shared a post talking about the enduring friendship between Washington and New Delhi and called it “a defining relationship of the 21st century.”

In a post on X, the Embassy shared a quote by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who called the friendship of the peoples of India and the US to be the “bedrock of cooperation.”

“The enduring friendship between our two peoples is the bedrock of our cooperation and propels us forward as we realise the tremendous potential of our economic relationship.”

Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent exuded confidence that the two great nations will solve their hurdles.

Meanwhile, later in the day, Trump shared a post on Truth Social calling India-US trade “one-sided disaster” and added that India buys most of its oil and military products from Russia.

“The reason is that India has charged us, until now, such high Tariffs, the most of any country, that our businesses are unable to sell into India. It has been a totally one-sided disaster!” Trump’s post read.

Can RIC Actually Harm US?

For the US, the RIC axis could become harmful, as Russia, India, and China together make up a large part of global trade. With India at the center, Trump’s tariffs may turn out to be an ineffective tactic—possibly damaging the carefully built relationship between New Delhi and Washington over the past decades.

 

American analyst Ed Price said that the RIC might outsmart America. “If India, China, and Russia get together in any sort of alliance, America will not be able to compete in the 21st century. We might as well go home,” said Price.

International Affairs and Strategic Analyst, Naval Captain (retired) Shyam Kumar, explained that Trump’s tariff policy against India has seen disapproval within the American government, its legal framework, and the citizens.

He added, “Tariff against India is a disrespectful and ignorant policy of the USA government under Trump. It is selective and indicates bias against the growing economy of India. The reason for slapping a 50 percent tariff on India on the pretext of buying oil from Russia is invalid. As such, many European and other countries are purchasing oil from Russia,” the expert added.  

The former officer further said, “India has boldly faced the challenges and found options to counter the likely effects by both gearing up at the domestic level and also at the international forums. The Indian government is seriously looking at transforming policies and strengthening its own ecosystem to minimise effects in the short and long term.”

“PM Modi’s visit to China clearly sent a message to the USA that strong rivalry between India and China can be forgotten to build bridges for the sake of national interests, and negotiations are possible to find options that give a joint front against the USA’s draconian laws. It is noteworthy that Ukraine has no objection to India purchasing oil from Russia. So India, underscoring its multipolar policies, has strong reasons to initiate measures with Russia and China and optimally utilise the emerging grid for its own interests,” Kumar elaborated.

Notably, Ukraine’s diesel imports from India have jumped to 15 percent in recent times. 

What’s Next?

As India, China, and Russia deepen their economic and diplomatic ties, the emergence of a potential counterweight to the US is becoming increasingly tangible. While it remains to be seen how effective this alliance will be in practice, its symbolic and strategic implications are clear.

The coming together of these major economies signals a shifting global order where unilateral tariff measures will clearly no longer go unchallenged.


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